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Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
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Last updated about 10 hours ago
“Either a 2% or a 75% chance of rain”
about 10 hours ago
Palko writes Last Saturday, I [Palko] checked Google and saw the forecast...
Let’s take apart this claim by Christopher Lasch from 1977 that hasn’t aged well: “Such changes have made both racist ideology and the ideology of martial conquest, appropriate to an earlier age of empire-building, increasingly anachronistic.”
2 days ago
As a social scientist, I find it instructive to look at the...
“The difference between ‘significant’ and ‘not significant’ is not itself statistically significant” . . . in the wild!
3 days ago
Here’s the statistical principle (from my 2006 paper with Hal Stern) And...
Friday 10am: Online conversation on “Experiments, Causal Inference, and Limits of Evidence” with Nancy Cartwright and Berna Devezer
3 days ago
It’s organized by Martin Paul Fritze and Cait Lamberton from the Center...
The Error-Reversal Heuristic: How would you have reacted had the mistake gone in the opposite direction?
4 days ago
Something we’ve seen with depressing regularity is that researchers do something sloppy—perhaps...
New course this fall at Columbia: Laboratory in Justice Data Science
5 days ago
Ben Silver writes I’m an incoming postdoc at the Center for Justice,...
What day of the year will have the fewest noninduced births? (Difference between mathematical and statistical reasoning)
5 days ago
John Cook points to this charmingly old-school webpage of mathematician Richard Stanley...
Intergenerational socioeconomic mobility over time for different ethnic groups
6 days ago
Elisa Jácome, Ilyana Kuziemko, Suresh Naidu write: We estimate long-run trends in...
Buy your Tesla at closing time: For 15 years, these stocks have been mildly fluctuating during the day and shooting up overnight.
7 days ago
Bruce Knuteson shares the above plot and writes Look at the strikingly...
Dumb statistical models, always making people look bad
8 days ago
This is Jessica. In my Prediction for Decision-making class last quarter we...
Doxastic Logic: a model of beliefs
8 days ago
Paul Alper points us to this mathematical framework that I’d never heard...
What happened to genetic algorithms?
9 days ago
Eight years ago in March of 2017, evolutionary algorithms seemed on track...